The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions

This book is about bet-sizing not billionaires. Does a good job of explaining esoteric and non-obvious ideas your broker is unlikely to explain, mostly having to do with risk, and the risk of going bust. Mix of some forumulas and anecdotes, but each chapter has a good summary to keep you on track

The book never quite answers the question about the missing billionaires. It gives some broad guidelines but is probably too technical and academic for most readers.

An excellent refresher on the concepts and ideas and insights of Financial Economics, and how they have held up over the start of the 21st century. But....the co-author was a partner at LTCM. The 1998 collapse of LTCM, and Alan Greenspan's mobilization of the full force of the Fed to mitigate its collateral damage to the broader economy, set the precedent to the Fed's over-reaction to 9/11, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the 2020 pandemic. Interest rates remain distorted to this day because of those actions (hundreds of thousands of homeowners locked in 'velvet handcuffs' of 2% mortgages, etc). To be fair, Chapter 8 is dedicated to an (oddly impersonal) post-mortem of what went wrong at LTCM, including Warren Buffett's scathing assessment of the collapse. But LTCM is quite a blemish on a resume. Isn't it?

I loved the beginning, the coin flip experiment was awesome and created a lively debate in my house! However, I'm now a bit insulted, struggling to follow not just the math but also the very long winded sentence structure. 🧠 1. “Basic high school math” as this is described, is a rhetorical trick — not an objective description. When authors say that, they’re almost never talking about what’s actually taught in a standard high school classroom. It’s often shorthand for “I think this is simple now because I’ve internalized it for decades.” That’s very different from it actually being simple. It’s also a subtle way to inflate their authority: “If this is basic and you don’t get it, clearly I’m the expert and you need me.” — that’s a well-known rhetorical move in finance writing. 📉 2. The writing does shift — the preface is crisp, reassuring, and feels accessible… then the prose degrades into meandering sentences and half-explained formulas. That’s not because you suddenly got worse at math — it’s because the author stopped teaching and started performing (or stopped going back through and cleaning up chat's writing) around chapter 3. 🔢 3. Calling this “high school level” when it’s clearly not is both dishonest and alienating. It sets readers up to question themselves instead of questioning the text — which is manipulative whether intentional or not. Well, I bought the book so im going to try to finish it, now that I've stepped away for a minute 😤 to express how I feel about it!

A well written, thought provoking book. It is an important contribution to the understanding of managing wealth. Victor Haghani spent a lifetime taking readers through his own interesting path towards a framework for thinking about how to effectively tackle the problem of uncertainty. We can look to the past but live in the present to make our financial choices into an unknown future. But with the book’s help you can better understand and quantify your choices.

The coin flipping discussion and relation to the stock market was quite good. I was expecting great things concerning the allocation of capital to investment opportunities. The discussion of the Kelly Criterion left out the reasons for half Kelly betting and did not explore what happens when you over bet. (hint - volatility increases while return falls) It was not clear what utility has to do with investment optimization. Maybe a utility curve of 2 is better than 1 but why? Certainly in the coin flipping example; a utility curve of 1 leads to the fastest growth of capital. The section concerning the 60 / 40 portfolio did not explain why a utility curve of 3 was appropriate here. Sticking to a utility curve of 2 as in the coin flipping example would have lead to the conclusion that 100% or more (leverage) of stocks would be appropriate for a portfolio. Frankly the logic in the book is hard to follow as the authors seem to avoid the conclusions from the formulas. Perhaps because suggesting a 100% allocation to equities would make readers question the logic that follows from the coin flipping example. Eventually the authors get around to laying out their investment prescription which involves dynamically rebalancing a portfolio between stocks and bonds as CAPE changes. This is what Elm does for it's clients so I am not surprised that this would be sold in the book. Market timing doesn't have a good track record and I am sceptical that this historically good approach isn't just a figment of data mining. For a better understanding and frankly more entertaining discussion of the Kelly Criterion, I suggest the book "Fortunes Formula" by William Poundstone. Overall "The Missing Billionaires" while interesting misses the mark.

A great explanation to the importance of the sizing of investment positions. A impactful story of the author’s experiences as it relates to safety as defined by Merton’s share and utility. The second investment book I gave to my college graduates ( William Bernstein “ 4 pillars of investment “ was the first ).

I purchased the audible version. It’s interesting so far but there some parts where seeing tables of numbers is essential. I think the publisher has recently made this available. Bravo! I'm not sure I can put links here but check the Elm Wealth website to find the free "audiobook companion pdf".

Very interesting read but more formulas and less concrete advice of how to build the optimal long term portfolio

What every parent should teach their kids before they start their independent adult lives.

Updated and important way to begin thinking through Investing and deciding on Investment Strategy.

This book is about dynamic asset allocation. I can only advise against buying this book. It is tempting to pursue looser strategies.

"The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions" by John Doe is a refreshing and insightful take on personal finance that stands out in a crowded field. Unlike many financial guides that are heavy on jargon and complex strategies, Doe's book is approachable and engaging, making it an excellent resource for both novice and seasoned readers looking to enhance their financial literacy.